Agoracom Blog

Crystallex HUB – Fill in the numbers please- a speculative math exercise

Posted by AGORACOM - Admin at 8:11 AM on Tuesday, June 5th, 2012

I contacted Richard Marshall to ask him what financial factors/players of the current proposed deal could affect the common shareholders with a theortical $500 million settlement from Ven within the next few years.

He gave me a general breakdown of those factors and how they would split the pie down to the slice we shareholders might reasonably expect. Without supplying specific numbers to those factors he was kind enough to send me what I’ve pasted below. I’ve added the italized (fill in the numbers) comment.

I ask that someone on this board fill in their best guess with a reasonable range of numbers that might fit these factors. Obviously I’m asking for something that is very hard to pin down because of the range of high-to-low figures and various unknowns.

But obviously I’m trying to figure out, based on RM’s understanding of who gets paid, what we might be left with after everybody else takes their share of a 500 million dollar pie.

Thanks Cividale

From RM:

Based upon the current information, agreements and filings, here’s how I understand the structure and assumptions to address your email and desire to model.

Any settlement or Award would first be used to pay off all existing debt (fill in the numbers) and liabilities (fill in the numbers)

and applicable taxes. (fill in the numbers) The Company has Tax Loss carry forwards that could be used to offset some tax obligations.

I understand the fees (fill in the numbers)

for CCAA (e.g. Monitor costs, Court costs, Advisor, Legal fees etc are being paid on a current basis and not on contingency).

I also understand the fees (fill in the numbers) for ICSID (e.g. procedural costs, Freshfields, Compass Lexecon etc are also being paid on a current basis and not on contingency/success).

Once the outstanding debt and credit facility are paid from any Award or settlement, Tenor would receive 35% of the balance (if they had not converted their 35% CVR into a 35% equity stake in the corporation). (fill in the numbers)

From there the balance would be 0-10% for consideration for the MIP and the balance 90-100% to the Company for the Shareholder benefit. (fill in the range of numbers)

At this time there are approximately 365 million shares issued and outstanding. There are a number of warrants and options with various expirations, triggers and strike prices ranging well into the $4 conversion price. I believe there are between 4 and 6 million with strike prices under $1 so most would not come into play.

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